The Convenience Leaders Vision Group (CLVG) has released its latest Vision Report, “Strait Talk: The Outlook for the Global Energy Market,” examining a market reshaped by refining capacity losses, crude supply, hurricane risk, an uncertain global supply and demand, and strategies for retailers to diversify fuel supply and prepare for volatility.

The CLVG virtual meeting, held on August 27, 2026, was the group’s 14th quarterly session and was facilitated by Roy Strasburger, CEO of StrasGlobal, president of Compliance Safe, and Vision Group Network (VGN) co-founder, and featured Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Kloza Advisors LLC. Kloza presented an interpretation of the global energy market and prepared retailers for what they might expect in the near future, followed by engaged discussion among CLVG members and guests.

Key takeaways in the report include:

  • Refining Capacity, Not Crude Oversupply, Is Driving the Disruption: Drone attacks on refineries in Russia, the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and Libya have knocked out an estimated 7 to 8 million barrels a day of global refining, with loss estimates varying widely across analysts. “Every analyst, whether it be the Pulitzer Prize winning Dan Yergin, who I worked with for a few years, or the Ivy League punk kid that pretends to know everything there is about oil. They’ve all got this wrong. And, you know, I include myself in that as well,” Kloza said. He also said: “It’s a fool’s errand to try to estimate how much oil we’ve lost.”
  • Strait of Hormuz Tensions Are Reshaping Global Supply Routes: Flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have been permanently altered as the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq build new pipelines rather than risk another closure. “What I’m seeing is that the impact of what’s going on in the world is far more profound in the rest of the world, than the impact that it has here and I think it’s good to be cognizant of that,” said Joris van Brussel, CEO of Shell Mobility and Convenience.
  • China’s Pullback in Crude Purchases Is Clouding Demand Forecasts: China has cut crude imports from roughly 11 to 12 million barrels a day to about 8 to 8.5 million, at points reselling crude rather than refining it, a move no analyst anticipated. Additionally, Kloza noted that “Chinese EV sales represented 62% of all vehicles [sold in China] in the most recent month,” calling it another wild card for demand forecasts.
  • Hurricane Risk Looms Over Gulf Coast Refining at Record Run Rates: U.S. Gulf Coast refineries have run above 95% of capacity for 19 consecutive weeks, leaving little cushion if a storm strikes a system now essential to more than 40 countries. “I get a little squeamish every time I read the EIA report and see the run rates staying where they are and we know that refined product inventory is sitting well below five-year ranges and averages. Thank goodness we’ve got that super El Niño this year. A couple of hurricanes would really throw some monkeys in the wrenches,” said Scott Barrett, Director of Fuels, Dash In/The Wills Group Inc.
  • New Pipeline Projects Are Poised to Reshape Regional Fuel Markets: Members raised two major infrastructure projects reshaping regional supply, the Western Gateway pipeline moving product from St. Louis toward Arizona and California, and the Pennsylvania Laurel Pipeline’s intended reversal moving Midwest fuel east through Pennsylvania. Hal Adams, Former Managing Director, OXXO USA took a step back and said: “Probably the most slap in the face thing I heard you talk about … was the fact that each coast is becoming more and more of a global player, leaving the middle of the United States kind of being a typical mid-continent, standalone kind of market.”
  • Retailers Are Being Urged to Build Optionality Into Fuel Supply: Kloza advised retailers to test alternate inland terminal purchases, weigh site selection between reformulated and conventional markets, and treat E15 and E98 ethanol blends as an underappreciated opportunity. Laura Aufleger, President of OnCue Marketing LLC, called the presentation both “enlightening and terrifying” which was a sentiment heard from others, as well.

This Vision Report includes the must-read CLVG Views summary, Key Takeaways, and Notable and Quotable section.

To download this and other Vision Group Network Vision Reports, please CLICK HERE.